Monkeypox isn't HIV and it isn't Covid either

Comparisons are entirely invalid.

A lot of people are trying to compare monkeypox to HIV given the current heavy impact on gay men. Still others are trying to compare it to Covid. Neither comparison is apt.

While HIV certainly had a similar trajectory of infection in gay men first before making its way into the general population, there is a vital distinction:. Monkeypox is a temporary infection. Once it runs it's course, you are no longer contagious and able to spread it further. Until the current sophisticated antiviral cocktails, HIV was with you, effectively asymptomatic until it became full blown AIDS, and could be spread any point after catching it.

Covid on the other hand spreads through breathing. While monkeypox isn't actually a sexually transmitted disease, it requires sustained close physical contact to spread. It is NOT highly contagious. Ironically, the very interventions that failed for Covid would be effective against monkeypox. While I don't advocate lockdowns, physical distancing is highly effective at stopping transmission. It doesn't even need to be 6ft, simply avoiding skin to skin contact is likely to be highly effective. Monkeypox is NOT a respiratory virus, like Ebola, it's relatively easy to contain by physical distancing and avoiding contact with the infected. Fortunately it's much less severe of a disease than Ebola and while unpleasant is rarely fatal.

I have seen nothing to suggest that anything specific to male homosexual intercourse is somehow more likely to transmit monkeypox than heterosexual or lesbian sex. And as we know from covid, you can't spread what you don't have. The driver is simply close physical contact. But given that gay men account for greater than 95% of all cases (some reports have said as high as 98-99.5%), if the type of sex doesn't matter, then the spread seems like it must be driven by behavior.

The UK Technical Report gives 99.4% of cases as being in men. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-4#risk-assessment-as-of-19-july-2022)

While we can still see public health officials discuss whether to mask 5 year olds in schools this fall, and Fauci on TV saying we should have locked down much harder (despite no evidence it helped in Australia, New Zealand, or China), nearly none have suggested changing the behaviors that lead to the nearly unilateral spread in young gay men.

I suspect that spring break could create similar outcomes if monkeypox is still running around at that time. If it is still around, it will be due to yet another abject failure of the public health apparatus.

There are a myriad of solutions to suggest, the most basic of which is “hold off on multiple sexual partners for 15-30 days.” They don't even have to stop having sex, just pick a guy and don't change for 4 weeks. Or hey, require proof of vaccination. I've been reliably informed that a) The US bought a ton of doses of vaccines and b) excluding people from society based on vaccination status is absolutely appropriate. If that isn't okay with your group, maybe form an Orgy Pod of a smaller than you might like group of guys you know are going to play by the rules (namely no sex outside of the Orgy Pod)

Given the overwhelming majority of cases being in one population, small and temporary changes here can have a tremendous impact on the prevalence of monkeypox in a given county. It would take a very short amount of time to stamp out this disease.

If you aren't part of that population, maybe don't sleep with someone who is until either it's over, they are vaccinated. (plus 14 days), or have had it and recovered. If you live with someone who is, you should consider getting prophylactically vaccinated as Ring Vaccination is effective against monkeypox.

While unpleasant, monkeypox should burn itself out in the not to distant future as long as it doesn't become significantly more contagious. Unfortunately our experience with Covid suggests that transmissibility is highly selected for which means that stopping this outbreak quickly should be a public health priority.